LOWER CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, HIGHER HOMES SALES: THERE IS AN EXPLANATION
February 16th, 2009 categories: Buyer Strategies, Real Estate Psychology, Seller Strategies
I am not sure where consumer confidence is for Chantilly and Northern Virginia home buyers. Given the traditional strength of our local economy, maybe it is much better than the national average for Consumer Confidence which fell this month for the first time in three months.
This is not much of a surprise, given the daily mantra of rough economic news. When something is repeated consistently enough, and believed, it takes on the dynamics of a self-fulfilling prophecy.
In spite of this, could we be seeing the faint glimmer of a housing revival? I know, there are so many current and “in the wings” foreclosures that any “revival” may seem a long way off. So maybe “revival” is way too strong a word.
At the same time, sales of existing homes are on the rise and an increasing number of homes are under contract to sell. To interpret these statistical reports we are well advised to remember the “action-reaction” tendency that we see in nature as well as social systems. The idea is that a sharp reaction eventually results in a counter-reaction. As home prices decline, not everyone will respond by staying out of housing. Some will react, as many are now doing, by seeing the decline as their entry point.
In this way cycles are perpetuated. Cause and effect is a pretty powerful principle. Not every home buyer knows they are supposed to react with fear and avoid the opportunity!
For example, consider the other forces that are part of the current economic turbulence:
- In some markets, home values have declined to early-2000 levels
- Government interventions have brought mortgage rates to near-5 percent
- Congress is pledging more support for housing, and a housing credit is part of the impending stimulus package.
Two points are worth considering as you watch the economic drama play on. First, cycles and the “action-reaction” tendency of human behavior and human systems is ever present. Gloom and doom eventually gives way to boom and zoom. And the second, to make good home buying and selling decisions look to all of the important factors in your own life, and not to the “programmed” mindset, especially the steady stream of “news” which seems like it is edited to ensure that only negative information gets through the screening filter.
One’s confidence is far too precious to be determined by something outside your own good judgment.
